Biz travel in 2012: My predictions
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It’s that time of year again, when travel pundits and prognosticators do their best to predict what may or may not happen in the coming year. Here’s what I see on the horizon for frequent travelers in Atlanta and around the worlds in 2012.
Apart from uncertainty about the eurozone, the global economy is slowly improving, meaning individuals and companies are likely to increase their budgets for both business and leisure travel. But just like improvements in the global economy, any expansion in travel budgets is going to be slow– very slow. Atlanta seems to be emerging from the great recession at a slower pace than many other US cities– but nonetheless, we are still traveling, still out there working hard and helping our companies recover.
Increased demand for travel in 2012 will mean higher prices for transportation, fuel, lodging and food, with the biggest jumps in fast-growing regions such as Asia, India and South America. Business travel to and from Japan should continue to improve, but leisure travel there will stay slow — forcing down rates for what has long been one of the most expensive countries in the world.
In the US, hotel prices will continue to increase in big coastal cities such as New York, Boston, Washington DC, Los Angeles and San Francisco where business is brisk, but will remain mostly flat in the heartland where economic recovery is slower. Airfares in the US are currently 10% to 20% higher than two years ago, and should remain high as airlines continue to reduce capacity, consolidate, or, like bankrupt American Airlines, shrink their way to profitability.
In Atlanta, Delta has already announced several cuts to its transatlantic schedule and AirTran/Southwest is trimming away at its domestic schedule from ATL and elsewhere. We are seeing some decent fare sales, but the restrictions around them make it tough for business travelers to use– for example, the current AirTran sale for January is only good for those who can travel on Tuesdays or Wednesdays.
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With Europe’s economic woes, demand and prices for travel in the region could flatten, but this will not be by much. European companies are likely to crack down on extravagant spending by cutting back or eliminating business class air travel, enforcing the use of midrange hotels and asking travellers take trips by car or train instead of flying. In the unlikely event Greece reverts back to the drachma, prices could take a tumble there, opening up opportunities for bargain-focussed vacationers.
Click here on my BBC.com column for a full round up of what to expect regarding… Airfares, hotel rates, travel deals, gas prices, wi-fi, mobile and meetings & conventions…
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